Personal model
Your cancer risk — modeled across every factor on this page
A simplified multiplicative model that combines the factors covered above (age, sex, smoking, alcohol, BMI, activity, diet, family history, blood type, race, state, UV, screening) into one personalized lifetime estimate. Educational only — not a clinical risk score.
Inputs
Edit any field — risk updates instantly.
Modeled lifetime cancer risk
42.4%
vs US baseline 40% · combined HR ×1.08
Change vs baseline
+2.4 pts
Contribution by factor
% change vs neutral (HR = 1)
Biggest modifiable drivers ↑
- Alcohol 1/day+10%
- BMI 26.0+10%
- Processed meat — med+6%
Protective factors ↓
- Age 45-10%
- Up-to-date screening-10%
Model: p_final = 1 − (1 − 0.40)^(Π HR), where each HR is drawn from epidemiologic literature cited elsewhere on this page (SEER, CDC USCS, WCRF/AICR, EPIC, NHS/HPFS, ABO meta-analyses). HRs are multiplicative for tractability; real biology has interactions and saturating effects. This is not a validated clinical risk model — use Tyrer-Cuzick, NCI BCRAT, or your oncologist for medical decisions.